Forecasting the landslide evolution: from theory to practice

Abstract This paper proposes a new, physically based, and mathematically consistent method for predicting the evolution of existing landslides first-failure phenomena based on slope displacement measurements. The is latest step in long-term research program and, as such, uses preliminary framework introduced two previous papers. first characterizes movements through limited number trends, second analyzes their dynamic characteristics. approach here extended to prediction landslide its validity effectiveness are tested well known scientific literature accuracy studies carried out some cases, consequences they have caused. Although results obtained so far very encouraging, full awareness relevance complexity subject matter, authors emphasize that should be used, current state knowledge, only by experienced professionals especially purposes.